This Week
The bond market was the big story this week.
Long-term Treasury yields have increased in recent months, as 30-year Treasury yields recently hit their high since 2007, facing pressure from a growing debt load (which hit $40 trillion this week), higher inflation (which we’ll get to), and competition from artificial intelligence hyperscaler bond issuance (boosting investment grade-issuance 36% year-on-year).
With yields rising, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced the Treasury will “at least double” its buybacks of long-term (10- to 30-year) Treasuries to $4+ billion from September to November (these buybacks provide liquidity by buying older Treasuries). While this initially led to a drop in long-term bond yields, it’s since reversed, seemingly upon the realization that a few extra billion dollars in buybacks does little in the face of ongoing $2 trillion deficits.
In terms of inflation, U.S. oil prices are up about 5% this week as there’s no end in sight for the Iran conflict. Notably, the 60-day Memorandum of Understanding expired this week without extension or even ongoing talks. Instead, Iran seized a United Arab Emirates-linked oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, there were reports Iran’s military is taking a “fully offensive” posture as it prepares to a return to war, and President Trump called for “unprecedented” “economic warfare” against Iran.
Relatedly, in Walmart’s (WMT) earnings this week (beat), the company noted that “higher fuel prices” are causing “some incremental pressure on the consumer.”
For the week, the Nasdaq-100® is down 2%, while 10-year Treasury yields are up a few basis points to over 4.7%.
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Next Week
Here are the top events I’m watching next week:
- Tuesday: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (August)
- Wednesday: NVDA Earnings (Q2), PCE Inflation and Consumer Spending (July)
- Thursday: Jobless Claims (Week Ending Aug. 22)
- Friday: Fed Chair Warsh Speech at Jackson Hole
